RANDOM MUSINGS: BUDGETING BLUES, POLITICS OF MAN OF THE YEAR AND ONE OTHER THING.

with

Ben C. Abraham.

BUDGETING BLUES

On Wednesday 18th December 2024, President Tinubu laid the 2025 Federal budget proposals before a joint sitting of the National Assembly. The presentation had been slated for the previous day Tuesday 17th but was suddenly moved. A very ambitious one, the total budget was N49.74trn, an almost 50% increase from the 2024 version. By presenting a National budget about two weeks before it should customarily and statutorily commence (and the National Assembly didn’t react), even when budgeting discipline had been somewhat attained in the previous regime, this Government continues to live true to character; trampling on set traditions and standards, a further evidence of State capture. Anyway, beyond the tardiness, not a few items in the proposal raised eye brows. As usual, you will say, right? Sure, as usual. The National Intelligence Agency (NIA)got a hefty allocation for a hospital – N238.05bn. A hospital for an intelligence agency that takes up more than 40% of the total capital budget for the Ministry of health and social welfare calls to question the prioritesse of this Government. Don’t forget the inflation and unemployment rates as well as the real economic indices concerning manufacturing. Then you have N761.97bn for an unspecified special projects. The street guys will say 761bn, as in? Special projects, an amorphous connotation for God knows what. Isn’t it déjà vu? Have we not been here before? Under Buhari, where monies were borrowed and spent on ‘special projects’ that included ‘feeding’ and cash transfer to the ‘poor’. Next is the counterpart funding for a Lagos State Green line rail project given N146.14bn. That sum is 65% of the entire capital budget for the Transport ministry. Then you come to the now-fashionable regional development commissions – North-East, South-East, South-west, North-west and NDDC. They were given 5% of the entire budget. What development has ever come via such commissions, I ask? If in doubt, ask about the NDDC and the North-East development commission. They are no more than conduit pipes for the elite ahead of a must-win 2027 electons. And time will fail us to address the allocations to the presidential helipad, renovations of state houses, purchase of office equipment, cars, travel costs and much more. All of these confront us in a season of counseled belt-tightening, when rolls Royce cars are tossed by the rich for Honda cars and the poor must trust and obey. Meanwhile almost 50% of the income will go to debt servicing leaving us to ask how the deficit in the budget will be financed. More borrowing of course. 2025 and budgeting blues indeed.

THAT MAN OF THE YEAR NOMINATION;

ThisDay Newspapers and Arise TV Networks selected President Tinubu as their Man of the year for 2024. They cited the tough decisions made by the president since inauguration as somewhat unprecedented deserving of accolades. And so the drums must be rolled out. But my worry has always been for private media organizations (who always champion this awards) to select Government officials who were elected to do what they are doing. It’s akin to asking for a job and expecting to be thanked for it, in this case a Government job. So Tinubu’s infamous ‘subsidy is gone’ pronouncement or declaration and the follow up ‘I have no regrets removing the subsidy’ obstinate insistence fetched him the man of the year (of course there are the other economic policies). You could say it’s just a private organization that selected him, but when you realize the enormous power media organizations wield in setting narratives, storylines and even revisionism, you will not take such a selection on face value. The Arise TV Networks have become arguably the most influential media brand today in Nigeria and this influence was hugely multiplied on the heels of the last general elections. The brand built a reputation of being pro people going into those elections and that racked up a massive viewer base for them. They relished this colossal capital even at the risk of being seen as anti-Government. While not expected to be subjectively inclined in opinion moulding, however, not a few people were taken aback by the Man of the year nomination. By applying the criteria used, one wonders if Arise TV has not spat on the graves of the many masses of Nigerian people who died of economic meltdown-related causes and its by products under this administration. And to realize that these difficult decisions have not yielded the much-touted positive fruits makes the selection much more curious. So much has been said about State capture under Tinubu, a man notorious for an inelastic capacity to clear every obstacle on his way at any cost. The cost includes the carrot and stick model of problem solving. And since many groups and organizations have understood this model they enthusiastically choose the carrot side. And we hear that the carrot side brings huge returns – not just financially but otherwise. Conversely, the stick side is better imagined than experienced; if in doubt ask Mr. Peter Gregory Obi, the numero uno opposition figure in Nigeria today. He recently cried out about his experiences and that of his family, businesses and friends so much so that many people now keep a distance from him. With this man of the year nomination, a particular narrative is gaining traction, which is that President Tinubu is working well; a brave man who has great plans for Nigerians. The story now is that the sufferings of today will soon give way for eldorado and that no other Nigerian leader has ever done this. Tinubu therefore, is the man of the moment and the man of the year, a savior and a sage. You will recall that an Arise TV anchor came out of the presidential media chat set grinning from ear to ear and regaling us with how that the man was in charge. Unfortunately, many Nigerians suffer grand amnesia and cannot independently analyze situations in historical context, little wonder the media so often set and drive the narratives including this present nauseous one – Tinubu being their man of the year.

……AND ONE OTHER THING:

TACKLING INSECURITY IN 2025;

Nigeria is waging battles on multiple fronts. Some years ago a former Defence Chief stated that the military were stretched thin because of their involvement in several internal campaigns ranging from the intractable boko haram in the North-East to the murderous herdsmen pillaging the North-central, the unknown gun men in the south-east and the unspecified gangs in the south-south. When the former Defence chief stated this, no one had envisaged or factored into the equation the ‘new kid on the block’, the lakurawa, currently operating and gaining grounds in the North-west. Of course they add to the Bello Turjis of this world in their vicegrip on thousands of locals in numerous communities in the North-west. The present situation must be seen from the twin perspectives of past failings, insincerity and deliberate sabotage in the campaign on the one hand and the need to tackle insecurity with other weapons beyond guns and bullets on the other hand. Recently when the UK Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch in replying VP Kashim Shettima referred to boko haram stating that she didn’t share any bond with such people, the story of the genesis of boko haram was again broached after almost 20 years. The genesis and sustenance of this dreaded group have often been swept under the carpet as if they were noisome distractions in the war. Alas nothing can be farther from the truth. And when you add Ms Badenoch’s holler to Bello Turji’s unrelenting assertion that Bello Matawalle, former Governor of Zamfara State and current Junior Minister for Defence was a major factor in the metastatic insecurity in the State and the region you will understand why insecurity in Nigeria is hugely unorthodox and therefore requires something drastic. Trillions of Naira have been proposed for the military in the current budget proposal. It is an item that is neither accounted for nor retired. No questions and no answers. Someone said that Defence spending had become one huge industry in Nigeria with many people endlessly smiling to the banks. Yet the war is not abating. Some days ago, Nigeria’s Chief of Defence granted a peek view of the war against the lakurawa to a foreign media, the Aljazeera Network. He also took questions in the interview. Many Nigerians had questioned why a local media wasn’t given such access. 2025 presents another window for this Government to objectively look at these battle fronts, ask the right questions before insisting on a one-size-fits-all solution that we see today. Questions like, who are the current sponsors of these groups (if any), what do we do with the list of terrorism sponsors sent before by the UAE? How much of sympathy do these groups enjoy from the current Government officials? How do they source their arms? And in the South-east and South-south where there are different kinds of battles, other kinds of questions should be asked. While we wish our patriotic, selfless and innocent troops success in their mission, we call on the Government to review this whole operation and cut off supplies for those who have taken defence spending as a conduit pipe. Once again welcome to a new year!