with

Ben C. Abraham.

ECHOES OF A PLANNED COUP?

News breaks in Nigeria fast, furious and frequently. It is not only in Nigeria though. It’s a global thing especially in this high-digital age. It’s just that in Nigeria the frequency leads to increased amnesia – people forget older events as quickly as new ones occur. Some say it is mental fatigue induced by the harsh economic climate as more time goes into how to find the next meal. So, news broke early October that Nigeria’s military high command had ordered the arrest of 16 officers on disciplinary issues. Couched in military phraseology, the statement said that the men had violated service regulations after growing frustrated over ‘perceived career stagnation caused by repeated failure in promotion examinations, among other issues.’ The 16 officers who became frustrated over career stagnation include a Brigadier General, colonels and captains and majors; and therein lay the giveaway. What kind of career stagnation would make a Brigadier General violate his service oath? The Brigadier rank, the first star in the General cadre is, for many enlisted officers, a dream land. Only a few officers get to this stage in their careers. For those ones, it is a dream come true. Its equivalent in the Navy is the Commodore and in the Air Force, the Air Commodore. For Nigerians though, an ever-nosy kind of homo sapiens, there was something more to that media statement by the Military. And do not forget that the October 1st traditional parade in Abuja was perfunctorily cancelled with Jagaban Tinubu ensconced in his Bourdillon fortress. It didn’t take long before grapevine pieced the puzzle and told Nigerians that the 16 men were not anywhere close to career stagnation; if anything, they were dissatisfied with the state of affairs in our motherland and they decided to take a shot at regime change outside of the ballot box. In short, they were plotting a coup d’etat. This news gained traction and the Military HQ struggled to contain the effect and douse any tension. In a statement issued on 18^th October, they denied the story of a coup and reiterated that the arrest of the G16 was not connected to any regime change. Even as the military debunked the news, details of the plot crept onto the popular media – the connections to the Al-Makura family in Nasarrawa State, the ex-Governor of a southern State acting as sponsor amongst other information. Well, for Nigerians, it was a case of believe what you want. There is no smoke without fire anyways. As expected, reactions have been varied and variegated. In sum, the average Nigerian doesn’t want to see the faces of the men in khaki on their television sets every other day; they want good governance by elected civilians; Nigerians want to enjoy the true power of the ballot box, not the gun barrel; they want to see the resources of the country benefit the collective, not a few people. The continued absence of good governance makes other options attractive – in obedience to Newton’s third law of motion. QED  

REJIGGING THE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE;

Actions speak louder than words you know, right? And just as the rumours of a coup plot and denials by both the military authorities and the presidency were ebbing away, a sudden change of guard at the top echelon of Nigeria’s security oxygenated the embers of the coup plot fire. In management circles you will learn that matters arising from a point can sometimes create more ripples than the main point; and that is the case herein. The matters arising from the coup plot have begun to create ripples, and just like the ripple tank experiment in O’ level physics , by the time the waves cease we would surely be on to something bigger. President Tinubu, on Friday 24^th October, without prior notice or consultation announced the removal of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen Christopher Musa, and all other service Chiefs except the Chief of Army staff who is now the new Chief of Defence Staff. New chiefs were simultaneously announced to take over the positions. This singular action spoke volumes. Nigerians being very intelligent people saw the act as a major confirmation of the coup plot rumours. A statement from the Presidency was terse and succinct, giving nothing away. Despite the statement, questions persisted; why the sudden shake-up; why remove every other Service chief and elevate the former Army Chief to now oversee defence staff? Questions and more questions. Armed with the knowledge of President Tinubu’s precedents in appointing his ethnic kith and kin into key and strategic places, the elevation of the Army Chief into the CDS position is in agreement with that playbook. In a country beset with internecine tribal issues, professional loyalties are not enough; tribal bonds prove tighter than anything else. So General Olufemi Oluyede, the new CDS should be able to close every ‘gap’. More ripples will come; the retirement of courses 39 and 40 of the Defence Academy who are all senior to the new Army Chief Major General Waidi Shaibu. And this is across all Services because no junior will take a salute from a senior. Someone said that about 160 officers will be affected. Other ripples will involve the internal shake ups; Divisional and brigade commands, battalion and Corps commands, trickling all the way down. On this development, one commentator opined that Tinubu, as a student of Machiavellian school of power and in a bid to secure his place, won’t stop at the arrest of the G16 members of the coup plot. He would get to the root which includes the kind of shake up just witnessed. Well, would you blame Jagaban? Unravelling and tracing a coup plot is one of the most difficult jobs anywhere. By the time one digs deeper, the chain would disclose so many potential participants. As the yankees say, he gat to do what he gat to do. My people often say that when a bee stings a child, he fights a house fly with all his strength.

……AND ONE OTHER THING:

  THE $1bn PORT RENOVATION PROJECT;

By the time Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu ends his first term (not to talk of a likely second term), Lagos would be dripping with steeze in various areas of its economy. Obviously, he is taking after Mohammed Buhari who ‘developed’ Katsina to the point of building rail tracks all the way to Mardi in Niger Republic. President Tinubu makes no secret of sinking tons of Federal money into Lagos State in defiance of what any body says. First was the coastal road which up till now lacks transparency in every respect. Then the approval for a 68km ‘Green Line’ rail project connecting Victoria Island, Lekki and Ajah. N146.14bn has been designated for this. Then the 2.9km underwater tunnel project that is designed to run from Ahmadu Bello way in Victoria Islnd to Snake Island and then on to Badagry. It is projected to be BOT under a Public Private partnership (PPP). The cost implication is not yet in the public domain. These mega projects are besides other ‘softer’ projects costing tens of billions. There are other international and Federal funds which Lagos State remains in pole position to draw from. And just last week, $1bn was approved for the renovation of Lagos ports – Apapa and Tin Can Island. The Minister of Marine and Blue economy Adegboyega Oyetola disclosed this during the 2025 Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT) Nigeria Conference held in Lagos. Reports have it that the project will take 48 months. An integral part of any country’s development is the marine economy, that is for littoral countries. Nigeria is blessed with thousands of kilometres of coastline which can be developed to earn so much. Apart from Apapa and Tin Can Island, there are ports in Port Harcourt, Calabar, Onne and Koko in Warri. Over the years, there has been a systematic underdevelopment and underfunding of all the other ports leaving about 90% of port business for the Lagos ports. The result is that the national economy concentrates in one area with attendant migration, housing and crime issues. That is why it is baffling that Tinubu’s Government has not deemed it wise to expand other ports and reduce congestion in Lagos ports. Well, while it may be baffling, the man on the wheels understands what he is doing. Just as we saw during Buhari’s presidency when the North took a huge chunk of allocations and even appointments, Asiwaju has obviously taken it a notch higher. The idea about Nigeria is that while its unity cannot be negotiated, the pattern of its development cannot be discussed. This is the reason behind under development of major parts of the country. Add this to the cancerous lifestyle of Governors and other political leaders and you will get the pattern more clearly. It is a winner takes all thing, and it is going to continue for a long time unless something gives.